okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets

原文涵盖的主题

• okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets
• Scope
• Required intake
• Workflow
• Validation gates
• Output contract
• Computational payload
• Safety boundary

OverKill Hill P³ · overkillhill.com · github.com/OKHP3 Compare an independently constructed probability with a market price while preserving uncertainty, resolution rules, liquidity, and cost. This adapter adds the market layer to the outcome-modeling core. It is research and decision support, not an execution workflow. -- | In scope | Out of scope | |----------|-------------| | Event probability and market-price comparison | Trade or bet execution | | Resolution, liquidity, spread, and expected value | Invented current market data | | Calibration, scenario analysis, and paper backtesting | Guaranteed edge or profit claims | -- Record: exact contract question and mutually exclusive outcomes; resolution authority, rule, date, and ambiguity risk; market venue, price format, bid/ask spread, and liquidity; observation timestamp and data freshness; independent model target, horizon, and evidence; fees, slippage, capital, exposure, and loss constraints; whether the task is research, paper trading, or an explicitly authorized execution workflow. If the resolution rule is unclear, stop at a comparison and label the result unresolved. 1. Load okhp3-outcome-modeling-core and define the event

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