okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets
Compare independent probabilities with prediction-market prices and evaluate expected value, calibration, liquidity, spread, and resolution risk. Use when analyzing event contracts, odds, edge, paper backtests, or risk-adjusted position sizing. Load `okhp3-outcome-modeling-core` first; this skill does not place or manage trades.
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Excerpt from the author’s documentation
Extracted from a fixed version of SKILL.md in its original language. This is the author’s documentation; installation, compatibility and runtime results have not been verified by this site.
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Topics in the source
- okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets
- Scope
- Required intake
- Workflow
- Validation gates
- Output contract
- Computational payload
- Safety boundary
OverKill Hill P³ · overkillhill.com · github.com/OKHP3 Compare an independently constructed probability with a market price while preserving uncertainty, resolution rules, liquidity, and cost. This adapter adds the market layer to the outcome-modeling core. It is research and decision support, not an execution workflow. -- | In scope | Out of scope | |----------|-------------| | Event probability and market-price comparison | Trade or bet execution | | Resolution, liquidity, spread, and expected value | Invented current market data | | Calibration, scenario analysis, and paper backtesting | Guaranteed edge or profit claims | -- Record: exact contract question and mutually exclusive outcomes; resolution authority, rule, date, and ambiguity risk; market venue, price format, bid/ask spread, and liquidity; observation timestamp and data freshness; independent model target, horizon, and evidence; fees, slippage, capital, exposure, and loss constraints; whether the task is research, paper trading, or an explicitly authorized execution workflow. If the resolution rule is unclear, stop at a comparison and label the result unresolved. 1. Load okhp3-outcome-modeling-core and define the event
This is an excerpt. Refer to the complete source and its current requirements.
- Source repository
- OKHP3/skillz
- Source file
- outcome-modeling/okhp3-outcome-modeling-markets/SKILL.md
- Fixed revision
- 7b187777d42ab7bc7bab1e5f2c940cd3139ecebf
Sources and evidence
This record was collected automatically. Its documentation, suitability and runtime behavior have not been manually verified.
Author: OKHP3/skillz · original repository metadata. Documentation review: Not reviewed. Last source check: 2026-11-10T10:00:55.286Z.
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