prediction-market-oracle-research

原文涵盖的主题

• Prediction Market Oracle Research
• Guardrails
• Research Workflow
• Integration Patterns
• Output Contract

Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer. Do not treat market prices as objective truth. Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations. Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal. Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes. For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run llm-trading-agent-security before granting any write authority. 1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform. 2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues. 3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links. 4. Evaluate signal quality: liquidity spread market age trader/incentive concentration if known resolution authority geography or account restrictions 5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs. 6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision. Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst. Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal me

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