stress-test

原文涵盖的主题

• /executive-mentor:stress-test — Business Assumption Stress Testing
• Why Most Assumptions Are Wrong
• The Stress-Test Methodology
• Step 1: Isolate the Assumption
• Step 2: Find the Counter-Evidence
• Step 3: Model the Downside
• Step 4: Calculate Sensitivity
• Step 5: Propose the Hedge

Command: /executive-mentor:stress-test Take any business assumption and break it before the market does. Revenue projections. Market size. Competitive moat. Hiring velocity. Customer retention. -- Founders are optimists by nature. That's a feature — you need optimism to start something from nothing. But it becomes a liability when assumptions in business models get inflated by the same optimism that got you started. The most dangerous assumptions are the ones everyone agrees on. When the whole team believes the $50M market is real, when every investor call goes well so you assume the round will close, when your model shows $2M ARR by December and nobody questions it — that's when you're most exposed. Stress testing isn't pessimism. It's calibration. -- State it explicitly. Not "our market is large" but "the total addressable market for B2B spend management software in German SMEs is €2.3B." The more specific the assumption, the more testable it is. Vague assumptions are unfalsifiable — and therefore useless. Common assumption types: Market size — TAM, SAM, SOM; growth rate; customer segments Customer behavior — willingness to pay, churn, expansion, referrals Revenue model — convers

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