okhp3-outcome-modeling-sports

Topics in the source

• okhp3-outcome-modeling-sports
• Scope
• Required workflow
• Sports state model
• Computational payload
• Output contract
• References
• About

OverKill Hill P³ · overkillhill.com · github.com/OKHP3 Apply the outcome-modeling core to sports without confusing raw wins with underlying performance. Sports evidence is organized as time-indexed team or player states, opponent-adjusted interactions, and structural events such as injuries, coaching changes, and roster moves. -- | In scope | Out of scope | |----------|-------------| | Matchup, team, player, and season projections | Guaranteed picks or certainty claims | | Opponent adjustment, schedule context, and roster events | Unverified live sports facts | | Ranking, calibration, uncertainty, and scenario analysis | Bet placement or bankroll execution | -- 1. Load okhp3-outcome-modeling-core and define the outcome, horizon, scoring rule, and as-of date. 2. Identify the sports entities, event grain, matchup relationship, and season structure. 3. Build time-indexed team or player states from only available prior events. 4. Adjust for opponent, venue, rest, schedule strength, role, and sample size where relevant. 5. Treat injuries, trades, coaching changes, and role changes as structural events or regime changes. 6. Separate descriptive performance from predictive features and av

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